Phillips Curve Calculator

Calculate the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. This fundamental macroeconomic concept shows the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the short run.

Current Economic Data

Phillips Curve Parameters

Phillips Curve Results

Actual Inflation: 0.00%
Expected Inflation: 0.00%
Inflation Gap: 0.00%

Economic Analysis

Unemployment Gap: 0.00%
Policy Stance: N/A
Economic Pressure: N/A

Long-Run Phillips Curve

Long-Run Inflation: 0.00%
NAIRU: 0.00%
Equilibrium Status: N/A

Understanding the Phillips Curve

The Phillips curve illustrates the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. It suggests that lower unemployment is associated with higher inflation, and vice versa, creating a trade-off for policymakers.

Phillips Curve Formula

Short-Run Phillips Curve

  • p = p? - a(U - U*)
  • p = Actual inflation rate
  • p? = Expected inflation rate
  • U = Actual unemployment rate
  • U* = Natural unemployment rate
  • a = Phillips curve coefficient

Long-Run Phillips Curve

  • p = p? (at U = U*)
  • Vertical at natural rate
  • No long-run trade-off
  • Expectations adjust over time
  • Monetary policy neutral

Key Concepts

Understanding the Trade-off

Inflation Expectations

  • Adaptive expectations
  • Rational expectations
  • Central bank credibility
  • Inflation targeting
  • Forward guidance

Natural Rate of Unemployment

  • NAIRU - Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate
  • Structural unemployment
  • Frictional unemployment
  • Time-varying concept
  • Policy objective

Phillips Curve Evolution

Time Period Phillips Curve Shape Key Factors Policy Implications
1950s-1960s Stable downward-sloping Fixed expectations Clear trade-off available
1970s Shifted right (stagflation) Oil shocks, expectations Trade-off breakdown
1980s-Present Flatter, vertical in long-run Rational expectations Limited short-run trade-off

Applications in Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting

  • Central bank objectives
  • Policy credibility
  • Expectation anchoring
  • Communication strategy

Dual Mandate

  • Price stability
  • Maximum employment
  • Policy trade-offs
  • Output gap analysis

Taylor Rule

  • Interest rate setting
  • Inflation gap
  • Output gap
  • Policy rules

Forward Guidance

  • Expectation management
  • Policy transparency
  • Market communication
  • Policy effectiveness

Modern Phillips Curve Challenges

Globalization Effects

  • Import price pressures
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • Exchange rate impacts
  • Global inflation transmission

Structural Changes

  • Demographic shifts
  • Technology changes
  • Labor market reforms
  • Productivity trends

Key Takeaways for Phillips Curve Calculator

  • The Phillips curve shows the trade-off between inflation and unemployment
  • In the short run, lower unemployment leads to higher inflation
  • In the long run, there is no trade-off at the natural rate of unemployment
  • Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the relationship
  • Central banks use the Phillips curve to guide monetary policy
  • The curve has flattened over time due to better policy and expectations
  • Supply shocks can cause both high inflation and high unemployment
  • Use the calculator to assess inflationary pressures and policy trade-offs

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